Archive for the ‘Macro Trends’ Category

马云对阿里巴巴投资者的一封信

September 24, 2014

(载自网络)

尊敬的投资者:

当您打开这份阿里巴巴上市招股书的时候,您也许在考虑投资我们,参与我们未来发展的旅程。我希望能在这封短短的信里与您分享一些我们对未来的信念和看法,以便您做出最终的选择。

我们的使命和愿景

阿里巴巴是一家真正相信并践行使命驱动的公司。15年来,我们固执的坚守了“让天下没有难做的生意”这一使命,帮助中小企业解决生存,成长和发展的问题,我们与成千上万的小企业一起靠理想,靠努力,靠市场成就了更好的自己。未来我们将一如既往与客户共同努力,成为一家生存102年,也就是横跨三个世纪的公司。

与其他高科技公司有所不同,我们不是一家拓展技术边界的科技公司, 而是一家通过持续推动技术进步,不断拓展商业边界的企业。我们不是靠某几项技术创新,或者几个神奇创始人造就的公司,而是一个由成千上万相信未来,相信互联网能让商业社会更公平,更开放,更透明,更应该自由分享的参与者们,共同投入了大量的时间,精力和热情建立起来的一个生态系统——正如今天你们所看到的。

很多年前,我们公司的创始人就渴望成立一家由中国人创办,但是属于全世界、属于这个时代的公司。过去十多年,我们一直以中国因为我们发生了什么变化来衡量我们的成就感,未来,我们将会以世界因为阿里巴巴发生了什么正向变化来衡量我们是否是真正的成功。这会是巨大的挑战,但更会是一个难得的福报。这要求我们每一天都做到最好,但是更重要的是,需要我们坚持长期的投入,规划和完美的执行。

我们基于生态系统的商业模式

阿里巴巴的使命决定了公司不会成为一家商业帝国。我们坚信只有打造一个开放,协同,繁荣的商业生态系统,令生态系统的成员有能力充分参与其中,这样才能真正帮助到我们的客户,也就是小微企业和消费者。作为这一生态系统的运营者和服务者,我们倾注了我们所有的心血、时间和精力,用以保障和推动这个生态系统系统及其参与者更加蓬勃发展。我们取得成功的唯一方法是让我们的客户,我们的合作伙伴成功。

我们一直坚信,身处21世纪的企业必须以解决社会问题为己任。阿里巴巴集团的发展从一开始就植入了社会责任的基因。我们相信一个健康繁荣的生态系统是我们商业模式的根基,而这需要通过持续解决社会问题和承担社会责任来实现。

互联网给了我们一个“千年一遇”的机会,让我们能在中国建立一个全新的商业生态系统。然而,这个变革性的工作并不容易,它要求我们必须保持一致,跨领域合作,并且始终聚焦在打造我们生态系统以及生态系统参与者的长远利益上;它要求生态系统最大程度的公平、透明和高效。这不仅是我们道德上的责任,也是我们自身生存和发展的基础。这个复杂的生态系统注定了不会呈现简单的商业模式。同样,因为我们的复杂系统,也让竞争者不容易轻易模仿。

假如您购买了我们的股票,您也会成为我们生态系统里的一部分。在全力保障您的利益的同时,我们也会希望并请您和我们一起努力确保生态系统更加持久健康的发展。

我们将如何面对挑战

过去的15年,我们走的并不容易,在一片的争议和挑战中,走到了今天。尽管天天如履薄冰,我们还是常常发现必须面对复杂局面,平衡与协调各方利益,并做出艰难选择:买家卖家的利益,卖家间的竞争关系,创业精神和监管者的关系,开拓创新和稳健保守的关系,诸如此类。任何一次巨大的创新和进步背后都会有与保守和既得利益群体的角逐,有人支持也必然有人反对。

此外,现实商业社会里的很多弊端也会在我们的生态里出现,假货,知识产权,以及那些试图利用我们的生态系统获得不公平收益的行为。如同今天所有的公司一样,我们必须解决这些棘手的问题,因为即使是建立在互联网上的生态系统也无法不受传统经济问题的影响,我们的生态系统及其参与者是无法从现实世界中分离出来的。处理好这些问题绝对不容易,因为从来就没有一个完美的方案和答案。同时,生态系统不是计划出来的,而是自然演进的,因此阿里巴巴的发展必须随时跟着现实与网络环境的变化而快速变化。

我们这次在美国成为公众公司以后,以前的所有争议性难题不仅不会减少,而且可能增加更多的挑战。当一家来自东方文明古国的大型互联网公司闯入全球视野,其产生的文化、价值观、法律、甚至地缘政治等因素的冲撞,会导致很多问题复杂化。另外,我本人就是一个充满各种争议的创始人,围绕我也一定不会缺乏许多令人头痛的话题和争论。。。我们希望这些争议是建设性的,可以为全球化的讨论贡献新的思路。

当然回避挑战不是我们的做事风格。假如您是我们的股东,您一定也会因为我们而增加不少困惑。但我在这里清楚的告诉大家:不管发生任何事,我们一定会顽固的坚持我们的理想,坚持做自己,坚持做未来,坚持诚信透明的公司治理原则。我们一定会坚定不移的捍卫阿里巴巴生态系统的长远和健康利益。您的信任和支持将会是我们最大的资产,不辜负信任是我们的信条。

我们解决问题的优先级

我在很多场合上指出,阿里巴巴信奉“客户第一,员工第二,股东第三”的经营管理思想。很多投资者初次听见这个观点可能很难理解。

我在这里向您表明:阿里巴巴只有坚持“客户第一”,为客户创造持久的价值才有可能为股东创造价值。在新经济时代,让客户满意的最主要因素是我们的员工,没有勤奋,快乐,激情敬业和富有才华能力的员工,给客户创造价值就是一句空话。没有满意的员工队伍就不可能有满意的客户,没有满意的客户绝对不可能有满意的股东。

我们非常尊重和感恩投资者用自己的钱表达对我们的支持,希望我们的投资者不仅仅能获得财务上的回报,更能和我们一起分享完善社会的成就感。15年来的时间证明,我们的投资者包括软银(Soft Bank),雅虎(39.06, 0.41, 1.07%)(Yahoo)。。。。,任何一家长期投资者都获得了丰厚的回报,并且参与了阿里巴巴为社会增加就业、鼓励创新、促进公平竞争、推动社会经济增长模式转变的过程。

我在这里还会强调公司不会根据我们收入和利润的短期波动而做决定。我们的战略决策会完全彻底贯彻执行使命驱动的长期发展规划。一切人才,资本,技术、资源的运用将会用来保障阿里巴巴生态系统的长期健康发展。我们渴望的是长期的投资者而不是短期股票炒作者。

我们的治理机制

为了确保公司长期健康的发展,确保客户,员工,投资者和各方参与者的长期利益,阿里巴巴做任何决定都需基于共识、协作和承担责任的原则,阿里巴巴合伙人制度正是这种运营思想的体现。我们相信,这样跨领域合作的机制能促进管理者们去除官僚主义和等级制度,实现团队协作,从而更好地提升公司业务。

要运营好一个阿里巴巴这样大而复杂的生态系统绝对不能依靠一两个创始人或管理层,不论他们多么有能力,我们必须借助一个机制并选拔更多在各自领域出类拔萃并有共同信念的人。合伙人保障的不是合伙人的利益,而是要用一套制度来保障我们的使命感,价值观,愿景和文化。我们通过吸纳新的合伙人,来平衡坚守核心信念和保持开放性,确保我们的生态系统和运营机制随着时间和规模发展而不断演进。

为了建立一个健康、可持续增长的商业生态系统,我们的公司章程授权阿里巴巴合伙人在公司战略方向和文化上有很强的发言权。我们用长时间的思考和实践,强烈的责任感,来建立和完善这个架构,我们对合伙人的选择异常谨慎。我希望各位能在招股说明书中仔细阅读关于阿里巴巴合伙人制度的描述,以了解更多关于我们对这个公司治理结构的独特性以及在其背后我们关于管理的建设性思考。

各位尊敬的投资者,阿里巴巴上市以后,我们每年的年报里都会有这么一封由我们合伙人轮流写的信和大家进行沟通汇报。

再次感谢您考虑投资参与阿里巴巴的发展。我和同事们向大家保证,我们一定会全心全意的服务好阿里巴巴生态系统,以及系统内每一个组成部分的利益。

马云

阿里巴巴集团执行主席

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The Internationalization of the Chinese Currency: CNH Vs CNY

May 26, 2011

The Internationalization of the RMB

It is unprecedented in the history of the world to see a major economy joining the global financial system in this manner. China, already the world’s largest trading nation is eager to integrate with the rest of the world, while the pressure to make the RMB freely convertible has become increasingly urgent;  but complicated by its own internal issues, China is finding a creative solution to the internationalization of its currency.

RMB traded offshore is known as CNH while those found inside of China is CNY. These two holdings can now be mutually exchangeable only for trade purposes; with proper documents presented to the various banks in various provinces where such policy has been effective. It is expected that more cities will be allowed to enjoy this facility to facilitate the use of RMB in the settlement of international trade.

China has allowed the free trade of RMB in offshore markets; and Hong Kong has been established as the “offshore MRB’ market. Since early 2010, the offshore RMB FX market in Hong Kong has grown significantly, with RMB-denominated deposits reaching RMB315bn ( or US$48bn) by the end of 2010, up from RMB62bn ( US$9b) a year earlier. Cross-border trade settlement reached RMB101 bn (US$15bn) per month as at December 2010, compared with just RMB10bn (US#11.5bn) in June 2010, the first month the trade settlement scheme as expanded to cover 20 Chinese provinces and cities.

Parallel to this development was a three-fold rise in trade settlement volume, in the first five months since expansion of trade settlement, to RMB340 bn (US$52 bn). Trade settlement will still be the primary factor determining the size of supply of offshore RMB in Hong Kong. One-off liberalization or capital accounts is not expected by most analysts in the near future.

RMB-Denominated Bonds in Hong Kong (Dim Sum Bonds)

From the list of new RMB products developed, RMB-denominated bonds, commonly known as “Dim Sum bonds” is perhaps one of the most significant. By the end of 2010, 50 offshore RMB-denominated bonds had been issued in Hong Kong. A total of RMB35.7 bn (US$5.5 bn) was raised. The average coupon in the offshore market is 1.53% (without any adjustment for credit rating), compared with about 4% for onshore state-owned enterprises. Insurance is expected to more than double in 2011.

Source: ANZ and the Asia Society Report on the Internationalization of the RMB

China’s Online Commerce is set to lead the world

February 6, 2011

E-Commerce in China is reaching critical mass. IDC revealed in its special research report 2010 ( in partnership with Aliresearch) ; Taobao.com has 370m registered users,
800m products online,daily 60m visitors; 48,000 products are sold every minute, peak daily sales 1.95b-an amount exceeding the daily volume of Beijing,
Shanghai or Guangzhou consumer retail sales.

China’s 12th FIVE Year Plan

November 15, 2010

China begins discussion of the next five year plan – 2011-2015. This is the master plan for development for the nation. In the 12th 5 Year plan, the country is expected to focus attention on TRANSFORMATION of the economy and intensify effort to attain harmony in Chinese soceity ( more to follow)

Save Energy, Cut Emission:A National Effort to go Green:

October 7, 2010

“Save Energy, Cut Emission” has become the official policy tagline of the 11th 5-year plan of national government policy. China has embarked on an all-out effort to lower and review the efficiency of its energy consumption, cut waste and pollution and overall reduce its carbon footprints resulting from her economic development.

With high economic growth over the last several decades, the energy issue is a critical national security issue. China’s is the world’s second largest producer and consumer of energy. Yet with not much much oil reserves of her own China’s dependence on oil imports will rise from about 50% today to near 80% in 2030. Energy from coal brings enormous air pollution problems. 16 out of the 20 most polluted cities in the world are in China. The Chinese economy has to grapple with the twin challenge of maintaining high growth and rational energy consumption and caring for the fragile environment.

The Government has promoted the Scientific Development Concept as well as accelerating policy towards development of alternative/green energy. The official policy is to cut energy use and emission by 20% while not sacrificing economic growth.

Second & Third Tier Cities

October 7, 2010

The Next Wave of Growth: Second & Third-tier Cities

The 80’s belong to the cities at the Pearl River Delta, the 90’s belong to the cities at the Yangtze River Delta while the decade starting from 2000 belongs to the cities at the Bohai Economic Area formed by Beijing, Tienjin and the Bohai area towns. Moving forward into the decade starting from 2010, the inner cities in the West and those cities surrounding the coastal golden cities, commonly dubbed second- and third-tier cities are expected to have their turn for economic development. The second- and third-tier cities are very well placed to take over as the engine for growth as the central government via policy initiatives had prepared them for this role.

Second-tier cities are an important component of China’s urban system, they account for 84% of the total cities until 2004. They are playing an increasing role in urbanization, industrialization and transformation of the rural population into urban. In terms of cost of operation, supply of labor and infrastructure for connectivity and mobility; many of the second-tier cities such as Wuhan, Chengdu, Suzhou, Shengyang, Xian and Xiamen offer great advantages for businesses. Companies are not only able to consider exploiting the cost advantage of good infrastructure, it can also use these cities as their base to capture the vast emerging consumer markets in the interior region.

China’s Middle Class

October 7, 2010


According to a survey jointly carried out by the HSBC and Fudan University, the number of Chinese with an annual income of USD 7,500–USD 25,000 will reach 100 million in 10 years from 2010. This, along with other surveys, may be optimistic, but all points to the emergence of China’s middle class as a key driver for growth. There are two typical features of the Chinese middle class which distinguishes them from those outside China; firstly the Chinese middle class is much younger and secondly their propensity to consume is higher.

In China, those who can participate in the economic opportunities created by the reform and opening possess a higher education qualification and training, especially those who are also trained to integrate with the world. The older Chinese people are left behind this for historical reasons. Besides, the Chinese government is investing hundreds of millions to beef up the higher education system to equip its youth with more relevant and current skills. Hence the Middle Class falls in the age group of 25-44 years old.

These newly created Middle Class has a demand for almost everything they need for living the good life: house, car, home electronics, their first holiday abroad and private education for their children.

Shenzhen’s Huajiang Bei – Make your own brand in 24 hours!

October 7, 2010

The Electronics Street: Shenzhen’s Huajiang Bei Lu

Some 500,000 people congregate at Shenzhen’s Huajiang Bei Lu; referred to as the electronics street by locals creating an annual GDP of RMB 74 billion of economic activities related to electronics and 3C mobile telephony. This street of less than 1 km is the shortest, but perhaps the largest and most concentrated 3C supply chain in the world, every day the latest technology are put to the market: buyers, sellers, logistics and factory owners are seamlessly connected at China’s largest one-stop “Shanzai” Market. Mobile phones, PCs, notebooks and all kinds of related electronics and their peripherals are available. A minimum order of 1,000 brainless “Shanzai” Ipad with functions more superior than the original can be delivered to a buyer within a day!

深圳華強北 全球最短3C產業鏈

深圳的華強北路電子一條街,短短不到一公里,每天聚集五十多萬人、創造三千七百億台幣年產值,把銷售、通路和工廠緊密串聯,每天都在上演山寨版的消費電子展,用高速帶動3C產業鏈革命。

China’s Super Cities

October 7, 2010

In 2010, out of the 1.3 billion people in China, there are 100 million who are considered as Upper Middle Class and 500 million considered as Middle Class by the purchasing power parity calculation.

Urbanization: 47% of the consumption  is found in China’s urban centers which include the second- and third-tier cities. According to research by the Commonwealth Magazine of Taiwan—with an average growth of 10%, per capita GDP over USD 3,000, per capita annual spending over RMB 10,000 and over USD 10,000 at coastal cities such as Guangzhou and Inner Mongolia’s Erdos—there are 47 Super Cities in China.

Cities with per capita income over USD 10,000
14 cities with the total population of 100 million
City Per capita Population City Per capita Population
Erdos 19,672 1.63m Foshan 11,798 1.429m
Suzhou 15,646 6.33m Shanghai 11,357 12.91m
Shenzhen 13,581 2.599m Ningbo 10,833 7.19m
Guangzhou 13,006 3.648m Dalian 10,599 6.13m
Baoto 12,000 2.53m Weihai 10,256 5.76m
Daqing 11,906 2.8m Zhuhai 10,218 0.414m
Wuxi 11,885 6.2m Beijing 10,070 17.55m
Source: Commonwealth Magazine (May 19, 2010 issue)
China City Statistics Department

Right or wrong, this developmental approach will have tremendous repercussions on the world landscape. The Chinese in Chinese cities will remain the key show of the 21st century; how they live, work, play and consume. Knowing how to deal with the Chinese in their new national setting becomes a key to success for the 21st century professional.

China’s High Speed Railway

March 1, 2010

High-speed rail in China (simplified Chinese: 中国高速铁路;  Zhōngguó gāosù tiělù) refers to any commercial train service in China with an average speed of 200 km/h (120 mph) or higher. By that measure, China already has the world’s longest high-speed rail (HSR) network with about 6,920 km (4,300 miles) of routes in service as of July 2010, including 1,995 km (1,240 mi.) of rail lines with top speeds of 350 km/h (220 mph).

China’s high speed rail lines consists of upgraded conventional rail lines, newly-built high-speed passenger designated lines (PDLs), and the world’s first high-speed commercial magnetic levitation (maglev) line. China’s HSR network is undergoing a building boom. With generous funding from the Chinese government’s economic stimulus program, 17,000 km (11,000 mi) of high-speed lines are now under construction. The entire HSR network will reach 13,000 km (8,100 mi) by 2012 and 16,000 km (9,900 mi) by 2020.

China is the first and only country to have commercial high-speed train service on conventional rail lines that can reach a top operational speed of 350 km/h (217 mph). Notable examples of high-speed train service include the Wuhan–Guangzhou High-Speed Railway, a national trunk line that travels 968 km (601 mi) in 3 hours reaching top speeds of 350 km/h(220 mph) and averaging 310 km/h (190 mph); the Beijing-Tianjin Intercity Railway, an intercity express line that covers 117 km (73 mi) in 30 minutes, reaching top speeds of 330 km/h(210 mph) and averaging 234 km/h (145 mph); and the Shanghai Maglev Train, an airport rail link that travels 30.5 km (19 mi.) in 7 minutes and 20 seconds., averaging 245.5 km/h (152.5 mph) and reaching top speed of 431 km/h (268 mph).

China’s high speed trains use a wide range of domestic and imported technologies from Germany, Canada, France, Japan and Sweden. The Beijing–Shanghai High-Speed Railway set to open before 2012 will use the new 380A train made by Changchun Railway Vehicles Co. Ltd., which can reach a top operational speed of 380 km/h.

The rapid expansion of high speed rail will bring  major Chinese cities together in a same day travel circle: 1-2 hours between two adjacent cities, 30 minutes to an 1 hour between provincial capital and other cities, and between Beijing and all other capital cities, 8 hours to a day. The high speed train railway network will be completed by 2020.

Key Statistics in Summary

March 1, 2010

By 2008, China had completed 3 decades of reform and opening.  The changes brought about by this remarkable transformation include the following:

  1. The Chinese economy is the second largest in the world after the USA with a GDP of USD7.8 trillion (2008) when measured on a purchasing power parity basis.  It has been the fastest growing nation for the past 35 years with an annual GDP growth rate of more than 10%.  Over the last 3 decades, its per capita income has grown at an average rate of more than 8% to USD 5,300 by 2008 (based on PPP), drastically reducing poverty from 53% in 1981 to 8% in 2001 and increasing China’s middle class.
  2. China’s economy grew at an average of 10% per year during the 1990 – 2004 period, the highest growth rate in the world.  GDP grew 10% in 2003, 10.1% in 2004 and 10.4% in 2005 despite government attempts to cool the economy.  From 1978 to 2008 China’s share of the global economy grew from 1% to more than 4% whilst foreign trade grew from USD 20.6 billion in 1978 to USD 45 billion in 1997.  By 2006, China’s total trade surpassed USD 1.76 trillion, making China the world’s third largest trading nation after USA and Germany.
  3. In 2003, the statistics show that of the 114,660 Chinese students who departed to study abroad, 104,281 were self financed.   The increasing number of self financed Chinese students overseas points to the rise of the per capita and the affordability of overseas education where once it was unheard of unless through government sponsorship.  In 2004, there were a total of 617,000 students studying abroad.  150,000 students leave the country each year to earn a degree.  About 90% are self financed. Within a decade (1992-2002), education expenditure grew from USD 6 billion to USD 42 billion and continues to grow rapidly.
  4. World Bank statistics show that China is the world’s leading recipient of foreign direct investment receiving more than USD 80 billion in 2005 and USD 69.47 billion by 2006.  By then, the total stock of direct foreign investment in China alone amounted to USD 699.5 billion with many FDI-led investments in manufacturing proliferating in the more than 6,000 industrial parks in China.  Together with the recent Chinese government announcement of the injection of RMB 4 trillion public spending to create jobs and improve infrastructure following the global economic downturn, China’s total foreign direct investment and domestic non public investment exceeds USD 1 trillion.
  5. China became the 3rd most popular tourist destination in the world receiving 91.7 million tourists in 2003.  In 2002, domestic tourists reached 878 million and the revenue from China’s tourism industry reached USD 67.3 billion, accounting for 5.44% of the GDP.  WTO forecast that China’s tourism industry will account for up to 8.6% of the world market share to become the world’s top tourism industry by 2020.
  6. Strong Foreign Reserves: China’s foreign reserves exceeded USD 800 billion in 2005, more than doubling from 2003, reaching USD 1.066 trillion at the end of 2006 and USD 1.9 trillion by June 2008.  By Sept 2008, China’s foreign reserves surpassed that of Japan’s making China’s foreign reserves the largest in the world.  The Rimini continues to strengthen as international money flows continuously flows into China.
  7. From having very scarce telecommunication services, China has seen a surge in mobile phone users.  In 2006, mobile phone users sent 429 billion text messages or an average of 967 messages per user; and, from starting with just 100 internet users, internet users increased to 10 million by 1997 and topped 137 million by 2006.
  8. When completed in 2015, the National Trunk Highway System (NTHS) which now has 10,000 km of trunk highways in operation will have a total of 35,000 km of toll highways and expressways at a cost of USD 150 billion.  By 2010, China will have expanded its railway lines to 100,000 km.

The economic and structural changes set in motion by Deng Xiao Pang’s open market reforms are changing China and indeed, the world.  China’s current high growth trends are expected to continue.  Robust growth will bring forth new ideas, new technologies and new business models, pioneered by the Chinese and the hundreds of thousands of enterprising business leaders and managers from over 100 countries around the world – all participating in the modernization of China.  China will set new trends and be a leader in many aspects of modern life in the foreseeable future.

China is expected to continue growing and developing at a fast pace.  Today, China is already the most important industrial production center in the world.  It is also an important consumer market.  It commands the highest foreign reserves amongst the nations of the world.   Today, China is the world’s 2nd largest economy, and by 2030, it will once again take its place as one of the world’s major economic powers with the greatest potential.